Are the New Times are Better: WebRTC vs. VoIP?

If you have been with me in at past events, you know that things have a tendency to go in cycles And go knows I have seen a lot of cycles. I can remember listening to the father of analog switching telling me that digital was overrated. I can remember my own ATM bigotry as I would talk about differentiated services which no one had truly developed, while the Internet stole the show. I remember QoS VoIP debates that treated the session like a call and fundamentally did not see the amazing results possible with Best Effort.
All of this brought us to the Internet’s next wave of transformation and once again the innovator’s are blowing past those of us that see dilemmas.
WebRTC is not a replacement protocol it’s an adoption strategy. Like Apple changed the game with music and smart phones, WebRTC changes video and the web.
Video with a royalty free codec, that is light enough to be used in a variety of real time scenarios, trumps the video streaming rivals. Changing the game by building a diverse ecosystem is the goal.
The WebRTC world is definitely a diverse ecosystem, that like VoIP provides a variety of solutions. In effect the popularity of the demo event shows the richness of opportunity.
A lot of friends have told me this feels like old times and for some of us who have participated in a number of next generations it will feel good to be together again in Atlanta. To see the enthusiasm is always a pleasure, but the point of participation is to find out how you can take advantage of the opportunity.
If you have been with me in the past use this code and join me with this next generation. Being at the Cobb Galleria again will be a great chance to connect the past with the future.
And as we have seen with the Internet the future keeps getting better and closer than we think.

The Economy of America is App Based?

Well not yet, but here is an interesting thing you can do.  You can watch the american economy via an app.  There are very few things that excite, but the way the government has been moving to an egov environment (in all administrations) is one of them.

Now I have to get us focused on improving the initiatives particularly in Congress.

Here is some homework for everyone.  Here is Al Franken’s website.  I can make a case that it is “Good Enough”, but I think you should have the ability to comment on every issue to your Senators and Congressman.

Now look at Congressman Scott Garrett’s website and tell me if you think you are getting to tell him what’s on y0ur mind.

For my issues, the Net, Telecom, etc. even the best is pretty bad.

I think we need a better egov strategy for people to express themselves.

What do you think?

 

 

 

Would you “like” it if I bothered Tweeting 2B or Not2B

If someone is clever enough to make an application of following the Wall Street Journal 2B index of companies, I will work with them to promote it, but it will also add to the paradox.

The paradox is that about 2/3rds of the postings to Twitter are through the APIs. So in effect you have to ask the question is anyone really listening or is everyone just manipulatively “sharing and retweeting”.

Likewise, I have gotten to the point that most of my Facebook posts are done remotely.

After “liking” Google+ for a while I made the mistake of friending both a Gay Advocate who posts every opportunity I have to join a community I have little interest in seeing and an Evangelist who counter posts and wants me to understand the implications of straying from the true path. In other words I have been driven off my own page.

So where is community in all this? Is a community represented by the number of distractions they send? The whole world seems to have gone mad with distractions? No offense to the Queen’s Jubilee, but nothing corporate seems to have any traction in this world. On my radio, if I give them 22 minutes they give me the world, if I give them 44 minutes I wasted 22 waiting for something new, and that repetition is rampant on CNN, FOX, CNBC, etc.

Even the Wall Street Journal can’t seem to keep focused. No offense to Walt Mossberg , but when I get the WSJ I immediately go to Page 2 in the Marketplace section (hence the 2B reference) and look for the major players in our space. Instead, I get to read about a 6 person app company that wants to be viral. Bless them all, but I think this belongs somewhere else. This week’s WSJs had drivel in the way of carrier coverage. Even the Wednesday story about the carriers changing their billing models was more focused on the Apple, and gave Apple more credit than Skype for stealing away voice minutes. They also barely touched the news that Verizon had acquired Hughes Telematics http://bit.ly/LA27iX .

Forgive me for saying this but where is the corporate news today? If the big boys are Apple vs. Google have the carriers past in to Western Union or Rail Road oblivion http://bit.ly/MrpBrl ?

I chided a friend who was complaining at TIA’s event. CTIA’s shows are today’s Supercomm filled with a plethora of peripherals while trying to retain the core. Talking to a friend who recently left a small carrier we talked about the consolidation of the industry and how that makes it hard for the trade shows to show opportunity. Big Carriers need big deals and big partners. Keeping the trade show moving requires focus on the future. The Internet should represent unlimited opportunity not consolidation and that should be more so for the Mobile Internet?

We partner with TMC because we are more than a trade show. We are a lead generation and an SEO brand service that looks to gather everyone that progresses the Mobile Internet. We highlight the mobile Internet, not just apps du jour, but the drivers for that it HTML5, the enchantment of things in M2M, the impact of what can impact you locally with Super Wi-Fi, and a bunch of other aspect of connectivity in Mobility Tech. While everyone else thinks I run several shows, I am really focused on one thing the next phase of the Internet.
Including the visualization of the Internet http://bit.ly/Ld5FJq .

At Axeda’s 2012, Thanks to TMC I got to do my favorite part of the job, interview people http://bit.ly/MrqY9w for the M2M Evolution site which is seen by over 24,000 visitors monthly.

I don’t consider myself a reporter, but I am an engaging interviewer. And I am certainly focused on the Internet industries future. It’s easy to decide you want to get noticed, but in an age where everyone is making noise, perhaps a better choice is to give information that matters.

The reason that the news world has gotten strident and repetitive is because everyone is looking for something for nothing. Real costs are involved with carrying the news, and what was a license requirement, is now a teaser. We substitute People magazine for Life and Time puts on their cover something Playboy would be embarrassed to show.

I write these weekly epistles to keep the community engaged, not to stream another bright shiny object your way. Your time is valuable and we want you invest it with us.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Are We Setting Precedent or Just Looking over a Precipice

Greeks are having elections; PACs are gathering Millions and Apple had their Developer Conference. It’s easy to see why; I am not catching a lot of attention. According to the news we are on the precipice. My articles focus on the precedents.

In conversations this week, I have been told that my Regulatory 2.0 efforts at best can solve minor nits. Market trends point to consolidation and regardless of who wins the election telecom initiatives are mired in problematic policies. It does not take much analysis to see the analytics of the device and apps company are a much better picture than the Service Providers data equivalent of three tone slope.

I see the issues of Net Neutrality as being more of a last device rather than a last mile issue and I would love for you agree or disagree here http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/MHCFC6K.

However some policy changes give me hope.

Brough Turner and Tom Evslin both recognized that in the commissions super WiFi decision we were getting a new precedent on how spectrum would be allocated. I shared that point captured in Rich Steves’ article http://bit.ly/KALGtx opportunity.

Another precedent is WebRTC which is captured by our friend Alan Quayle in his article for No Jitter http://bit.ly/K9UOz2 . I tweeted the question, “Does WebRTC force the carriers to VoLTE? “

As over the top becomes the norm, I here that it’s all because of Apple’s influence.

I am always leery of giving Apple credit for insight into telecom

My friends continue to think that Apple will be a carrier, ignoring the fact that they just added Cricket to the list with ATT, Sprint and Verizon Wireless in the US alone.

Our friend’s logic is that they have all this cash that they need to find something to do with it, and from a market cap perspective companies like Clearwire are easy acquisitions. It’s easy to imagine a Brewster’s Millions remake where Tim Cook drains the coffers to make a worldwide network. As a result of this discussion, I am looking to develop a series of calls under the Regulatory 2.0 umbrella which I am borrowing form SNL and calling “Really DeviceTel?” The first one I am looking for my Wall Street Analyst friends to talk about the soundness of the financing this telco strategy. If you want to participate send a note to me cford@imhocorp.com .

Don’t misunderstand in terms of networks Apple has one. Like Amazon, Google and Microsoft the network supports the cloud not the call. In fact, I can make the case that these companies have created in their messenger services a better over the top service than the carriers can create. Even Blackberry Messenger could be part of this over the top RTC crowd.

So the story is about the Apps and the developers

Tim Cook, led the Apple WWDC faithful which inspired me to write my Mobility Tech article http://bit.ly/Mev2JP . Apple’s empire gets built one market at a time and now the sites are set on search. I tweeted “Can Apple Turn 400 Million People against Google”. I watched the faithful clapping appreciatively, I was thinking of the contrary side (It’s my job and my nature). Jeff Pulver started by providing bond analytics as an Add on to Lotus 123, his add on was embedded by Microsoft into Excel pushing him out of the market but standardizing his error codes. Watching Apple showing their embedding of Facebook, Maps and Yelp, I wonder what business plans were being destroyed in the smiling audience.

Everyone wants the developer and with HTML5 we can all be developers.

In trying to think about this, I was reminded of my old math book, which led to my M2M article http://bit.ly/NuAOhw and my Bob Newhart’s button down mind http://bit.ly/M1dnHg .

My path the next few weeks has me returning to Washington DC and then to Boca Raton. If you are in these areas let me know.

At one point I am going to be at two places at once. A new precedence for me based on the video world http://bit.ly/KPhi8o that is changing our future, (and a Firesign Theatre overtone). I am going to participate in IMTC’s 2025 http://2025.imtc.org/ and the SIP Forum’s SIP NOC http://bit.ly/LuldbV .

I will try to point out the precedents that will lead to the future and not cry that we are on a precipice.

If Devices are Merging with the Software Companies Is the Network Next?

My cynical friends are arguing about who is the better acquisition for Microsoft?  RIM or Nokia.  The argument starts with a very good analysis from John Gruber about Microsoft’s Surface announcement and that from a marketing perspective MSFT cannot get out of its own way.

However, at the end of the day I am still not sure this makes sense.   We will include this in our discussion on Apple Tel to be held on August 16th.   Join us by clicking here to register

To Review here are the market caps that matter

COMPANY STOCK SYMBOL MARKET CAP
AMAZON AMZN 101 B
Apple AAPL 567 B
ATT T 208 B
Clearwire CLWR     2 B
Google GOOG 191 B
Intel INTC 132 B
Microsoft MSFT 254 B
Nokia NOK     8 B
Nuance NUAN     8 B
Oracle ORCL 142 B
Orange FTE   33 B
RIM RIMM     4 B
Sprint S   10 B
Telefonica TEF   19 B
Verizon VZ 126 B
Vodafone VOD 138 B

 

I dont find the tablet particularly as strong as everyone else does.  As a matter of fact.  I find it less and less intriguing for business work.  While most of meetings were innudated with iPads a year ago the PC has come back strong.

I believe companies are lemming like when it comes to decisions.  Google made GoogleTalk and Froogle at the sametime which made ebay knee jerk to buy Skype.  I can make a case that Microsoft made the Skype acquisition just to get it out of proximity to Avaya which could have really used it.  But like other Venture funds Silver Lakes goal was maximize revenue not find synergies.

Now comes the integrated hardware story and candidly i don’t like it. I can not afford to buy an Apple toaster everytime they decide to screw around.  I find myself in the apple store these days almost as much as I am in the grocery store putting up with the near genius of barring me from touching my machine in a useful manner.

Candidly Apple’s biggest genius is the fact they have “insourced” the truck roll to retail outlet.  I never walk into an empty store.  It’s clear I am in the Whole Foods computer market.  I make an appointment and wait.

If this is the future of computing we should stop talking about the cloud.

I am having a rough time buying that hardware integration is essential for today’s software.  I think the history of Nokia’s Symbian problems should make Microsoft shy away (since it can’t resolve its own legacy issues).

At least RIM has a JAVA story that can match well to the Windows  Server migration strategy.  One other thing we should notice.  RIM has hired ex Microsoft exec Alec Saunders, who is evangelizing development efforts and I think he is making headway.

However, the story is not about a phone, it’s about the network of resources

Given the fact that we use a smart phone only 15% of time to talk I think the term smart phone is rapidly becoming the 2012 version of Vint Cerf’s “Horseless Carriage”.  I think Microsoft should as Henry Sinnreich says, “Leave the Dead to Bury the Dead.”

If you are looking for the blue ocean strategy for Microsoft,  I think the launch pad is xbox.  They have included augmented reality and what they should do is embrace and expand beyond the iPad.

What should Microsoft do next?  I think the answer is to get Voice Recognition rock solid.  From that point of view, I would suggest that Nuance is the only company in the market worth buying.

If we are going to get to our Star Trek future the voice recognition is the path.   However, almost everything I know about voice recognition is based on software not hardware.  I cannot make a case that the hardware is the important part of this equation.

I don’t think the device of our future has fallen into our lap yet.

And if Apple wants to own a network, someone is going to have to show me how the margins improve for them.